Trump’s big win in Iowa included some signs of problems with moderates and younger voters

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Monday was a big night for former President Donald Trump: He claimed a clear victory in the Iowa Republican caucuses — the first opportunity voters in the 2024 race have had to score how much (or how little) they support him over rivals like Ron DeSantis and Ronald Trump. Nikki Haley.

But beyond the headline of Trump’s 51% victory, there was more insight into the results.

Here’s a closer look at what happened in Iowa and what’s next for Trump.

The strong presentation overshadows some of the issues

An analysis of polls conducted by party members on Monday showed various Republican groups in which Trump is ahead — as well as areas in the electorate where he is relatively weaker.

He won large majorities among partisan voters ages 45 and older (56% support), those without a college degree (67%), Republicans (54%), conservative voters (55%) and “very” conservative voters (51%) ) as well as 53% of white evangelical Christians, according to his poll analysis Langer Research Associates For ABC News.

The poll analysis also found that Trump was overwhelmingly favored (82%) by those who were looking for a candidate who would “fight for people like me” and also saw strong support (64%) from those who said they were focused on immigration. .

What’s more, 46% of voters identified themselves as part of Trump’s “MAGA movement” and most (78%) of that group supported it.

Image: A man speaks as people participate in a campaign rally to choose a Republican presidential candidate, in Silver City, Iowa, January 15, 2024.

A man speaks as people participate in a campaign rally for a Republican presidential candidate, in Silver City, Iowa, January 15, 2024.

Scott Morgan – Reuters

Broad swaths of voters on Monday also embraced two of his main views: 63% of caucus members said they considered him fit for office even if hypothetically convicted of a crime, according to the analysis. Trump faces charges in four cases, but denies any wrongdoing.

Two-thirds (66%) of caucus participants said they also believe the false claim that President Joe Biden was not legitimately elected over Trump in 2020.

Taken together, these results from the poll suggest that Iowa’s Republican base is older, conservative, less college educated, more religious and more aligned with MAGA views — all of which are consistent with their support for Trump.

Poll results show some problems he still has with other voters — moderates, young people, four-year college graduates — suggesting he may have trouble courting those same groups outside the GOP base.

According to the poll analysis, Trump won only 37% of four-year college graduates, 42% of independents, and 20% of moderates.

He also carried a minority of caucus members who wanted a candidate with “the right temperament” and lost to DeSantis in voters who focused on abortion, and Haley in voters who focused on foreign policy.

Turnout has dropped a lot

The Iowa caucuses are a strange part of the presidential nominating process every four years.

Because it is conducted first in each state, it receives significant media and Republican attention as a prime example of how voters feel about the candidates.

But caucus rules are not like traditional elections, instead requiring that participants gather at the same time across the state and participate in forum-like meetings before casting their votes.

Perhaps as a result, turnout was lower than in contests in other early voting states, such as New Hampshire.

This year saw a sharp drop in turnout from the last contested caucuses, in 2016. About 110,000 people participated in the caucuses — a roughly 40% decline from eight years ago, which set a record for turnout. (By contrast, New Hampshire’s 2016 primary saw more than 250,000 votes.)

Photo: Former President Donald Trump speaks at his campaign night event at the Iowa Events Center, January 15, 2024 in Des Moines, Iowa.

Former President Donald Trump speaks at his campaign night event at the Iowa Events Center, January 15, 2024 in Des Moines, Iowa.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Iowa Republicans said the harsh winter weather was ultimately a factor party members had to contend with, having surmised that voters were accustomed to such conditions and would not be affected.

“Iowans endured record-low temperatures after a snowstorm hit their state just days ago to deliberate with their community members about the future of our country and participate in a true grassroots democracy,” Jeff Kaufman, chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, said in a statement. .

“Iowans coming out in large numbers shows the resilience and determination of our people, as well as their confidence in the nation’s most transparent democratic process,” Coffman said.

Trump’s 51% victory total was the largest margin of victory ever in any meaningfully contested Iowa Republican caucuses dating back to their start in 1976.

But allies of some of his rivals were quick to insist that the relatively low turnout meant the results should not be overinterpreted and that nearly half of all caucus participants still chose someone other than Trump.

Trump’s way from here

The results of the caucuses were the first evidence from Republican voters that Trump still dominates the party’s base — but his path to a third consecutive presidential nomination is not without obstacles.

He will next compete in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, where Haley is based Much closer to him being No. 2 on the ballotcompared to other states.

Polls suggest that New Hampshire, like Iowa, has some unique rules of its own that could favor Haley.

The primaries are open, meaning both Republicans and registered independents can vote. Haley received notable support from independents.

Photo: Republican presidential candidate and former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley speaks to the crowd at a party night in West Des Moines, Iowa, January 15, 2024.

Republican presidential candidate and former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley speaks to the crowd at a party night in West Des Moines, Iowa, January 15, 2024.

Jenna Moon/Reuters

She is working hard to convince those voters to vote for her on Tuesday and give her a major boost ahead of the South Carolina primary at the end of February. (Nevada will hold its GOP caucuses in early February, but Trump has won a landslide in every state poll there.) Tracked by 538.)

But the path to competing with Trump in the long term is a narrow one, if the polls are accurate. He remains the favorite – by double digits – in various states and nationally. Haley and DeSantis also remain in conflict with each other, with each seeking to be the main alternative to Trump.

Away from the track, the former president also has to deal with his legal troubles. Although he denies any wrongdoing, his ability to campaign remains and will continue to be complicated by the various judicial procedures related to his criminal cases.

In February, the US Supreme Court will also hear arguments on a challenge to his nomination under the 14th Amendment’s “rebellion clause,” with his opponents arguing that his alleged involvement in the January 6 attack should bar him from holding future office.

He rejected this as anti-democratic.

ABC News’ Kristen Weiler, Gary Langer, Isabella Murray, Oren Oppenheim, Steven Sparks and Kelsey Walsh contributed to this report.

This article originally appeared on abcnews.go.com

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