Days before New Hampshire primary, most Republicans would be satisfied with Trump as 2024 nominee: poll


Former President Donald Trump’s convincing victory in the Iowa caucuses on Monday shows his continued strength among Republicans and a new ABC News/Ipsos channel. vote It once again finds that Trump is viewed nationally as the candidate with whom Republicans and Republican-leaning independents will be most satisfied as their 2024 nominee as well as the highest-rated contender across a range of other attributes.

Three in four Republican-leaning adults say they would be very or somewhat satisfied with Trump as the GOP presidential nominee, compared to 64% who say the same about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and 50% about former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, two of whom Trump. The remaining competitors in the nomination race.

Trump’s advantage tracks closely with findings on Republicans interviewed as part of a more comprehensive poll conducted by ABC News in the week before the Iowa caucuses.

And just as polls in Iowa suggested Trump was able to dominate among evangelical or born-again Christian voters in the state on Monday, he maintains a significant advantage in that group’s ratings nationally as well. According to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted with Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel, 74% of evangelicals or born-again Christians are somewhat or very satisfied with Trump. He received a stronger rating on this question than both Healey and DeSantis among this group.

Trump swept the Iowa caucuses on Monday, beating the other candidates by a historic margin and winning 51% of the vote: the first decisive victory in a presidential primary season that sets a high-stakes benchmark just days before the New Hampshire primary, which takes place on Tuesday. And Haley hopes to eat into Trump’s margin of victory in order to fuel her campaign.

DeSantis was second in Iowa with 21% and Haley was third with 19%.

Although DeSantis and Haley insist that their results in Iowa prove that there is appetite among the Republican Party for a candidate named not Trump – because 49% of caucus participants voted for someone other than him – and that neither would be stronger either way. With a head-to-head matchup against President Joe Biden, an ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 80% of Republican-aligned adults view Trump as the candidate with the best chance of winning the election in November. One in ten say Haley has the best chance, while 9% say the same about DeSantis.

PHOTO: Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event in Atkinson, New Hampshire, on January 16, 2024.

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event in Atkinson, New Hampshire, on January 16, 2024.

Matt Rourke/AP

Trump also holds a significant lead in this poll over DeSantis and Haley on a host of other attributes. Republicans and GOP supporters see him as the candidate who best represents their personal values, who is the strongest leader, who most understands the problems of people like them, and who is best qualified to serve as president.

Trump’s lead over DeSantis and Haley on these traits is similar to an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted before the Iowa caucuses, with one exception: The perception that Trump is the candidate with the best chance of electability in November has strengthened since his election. Winning in Iowa.

Trump also maintains a higher favorability rating than his opponents. In the new poll, 72% had a favorable impression of him, compared to 63% for DeSantis and 49% for Haley. These numbers are similar to the numbers that existed before the caucuses.

The former president is widely viewed as the favorite in the rapidly approaching contest in New Hampshire, but Healey has narrowed his lead significantly since the fall. according to Polling average 538She currently trails Trump in the state by about 13 points, 45.6-33.1%. This is in stark contrast to early November, when Trump dominated the field, leading by about 30 points.

Part of Haley’s boost came after her well-received debate performance and after significant local support — in December, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu chose to back her over his friend, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Her team has placed a big bet that independent voters in the state will rally in her favor.

New Hampshire’s importance is strongly reflected in her campaign finances, as she has spent more than $26 million flooding the state with ads between her official campaign organization and super PAC allies.

She has also had an aggressive ground game, with 35 recorded days on the ground in the state and more than 50 events with voters, according to an ABC News analysis of events since February.

However, Trump made clear in his speech to Iowans on Monday evening that he believes the loyalty of New Hampshire GOP voters is strong enough to maintain his lead.

“So now we’ve headed to New Hampshire, which is a great place… They’re embarrassed by what’s going on,” he said. “Our country is being mocked all over the world and laughed at us.” “And they want our country back.”

Methodology – ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted using probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® January 16-17, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,480 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, with an oversample of natives—again Christians were weighted according to their correct percentage in the population. The results have a margin of sampling error of 2.8 points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in opinion polls. See the survey’s key findings and details of the methodology here.

ABC News’ Nicholas Kerr, Dan Merkel and Ken Goldstein contributed to this report.

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