4 poll numbers explain Trump’s victory in the New Hampshire primary


previous president Donald TrumpThe Republican Party’s dominance among the GOP’s electoral base fueled its presidential election victory New Hampshire Elementary Tuesday, according to NBC News poll results.

While he was a former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley With Trump’s success in winning over independent or “undeclared” voters, Trump’s wide margins among Republican and conservative voters were too wide to overcome. Just like last week Iowa caucusesThe New Hampshire primary also highlighted how ardent Trump supporters control the Republican base.

Here are four numbers from the NBC News poll that help explain Trump’s win:

1. Trump’s GOP margin

Three in four New Hampshire GOP primary voters who identified themselves as Republicans supported Trump, making up a majority of voters (51%). Haley won 60% of voters who described themselves as independent, but by 22 points compared to Trump’s 49 point difference among Republicans.

2. Conservatives controlled the electorate

Self-described conservatives dominated voters in the primaries, with 66% of voters describing themselves as conservative. Trump won 70% of them. Haley won 73% of self-described moderates, beating Trump by about 3 to 1, but they represented a smaller share of voters (28%).

3. The new pro-Trump GOP base

In the Trump years, the Republican Party has had success among non-college-educated voters, and Trump easily won that group on Tuesday night. Voters without college degrees represented the majority of voters (52%).

Among voters without college degrees, Trump received 66%, while only 32% voted for Haley. Trump’s performance among these voters also rose by 24 percentage points compared to 2016, when he won 42% of them.

Although they make up smaller shares of the electorate, Trump also won among other groups that make up the GOP’s base, including 66% of voters with incomes under $50,000, 70% of white evangelical or born-again voters, And 51% of voters. Over 65 years old.

4. Trump excelled on the most important issues

The two issues most important to GOP primary voters were the economy (37%) and immigration (31%) — and Trump outperformed Haley on both.

He won 54% of voters who said the economy was their top issue, and 78% of voters who said immigration was most important to their vote.

Poll results also showed that one of Haley’s key messages during the campaign was not a top priority for primary voters. Haley has made clear that she is in a better position to defeat President Joe Biden in November, but only 14% of primary voters said this mattered to them more. Even among these voters, Trump still had the most support, with 59% supporting him, and 39% supporting Haley.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com

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