The recession may have been easier than expected for the US economy


Good morning.

With only one week left until summer, I want to use the next five days to explore five big questions every CEO will have to grapple with in the months ahead:

1. Economy: Is this a soft landing or the calm before the storm?

2. technology: Artificial intelligence will transform my business. but how? And how quickly?

3. climate The energy transition is happening now: How should my company play the shift?

4. Geopolitics: The world is realigning itself: how should we realign with it?

5. American Policy: As much as I’d like to avoid that, I can’t. What is the best survival strategy?

Today’s first question. Let me start with a confession: Inflation has fallen much more quickly than I expected. There is no indication that we are preparing for a repeat of the 1970s. However, the remarks from the Fed’s meeting in Jackson Hole last week They are characterized as hawksThis suggests that the masters of monetary policy feel confident that they are finally ahead of the game…or at least no longer behind. And they got there without, so far, causing a recession. The most predictable recession of modern times is nowhere in sight.

But this does not mean that the economy is out of the woods. With interest rates likely to remain high for some time, bankruptcies are on the rise. The change in office real estate – affected by the double whammy of higher interest rates and lower occupancy – is still to come. A second round of banking problems could follow.

In some ways, the recession may have been easier. And the unintended consequences of more than a decade of easy money are still lurking in the wings. A soft landing does not mean the economy is ready to take off. It only means that the final verdict on this era of unprecedented experimentation in economic policy has not yet been made.

And by the way, don’t assume that the Chinese slowdown won’t negatively affect the US economy. luckWill Daniel looks on The effects are here.

Tomorrow, I’ll take up the issue of technology. Let me know if you think the five are missing something big. More news below.

Alan Murray

This story originally appeared on

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